An Overview of the Importance and Why the Stock Return Prediction, with Emphasis on Macroeconomic Variables

Document Type : Review Paper

Authors

1 PHD , Financial Management

2 Assistant Professor, Business Administration Department, Islamic Azad University, Tonekabon Branch, Tonekabon, Iran

3 Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran

Abstract

The need for and attention to the future and their relevance has been repeatedly discussed in our markets and the subject of forecasting is a unique factor that estimates future unknown values. Given the importance of forecasting in financial research, stock return predictions have so far been tested through various models and variables. Most of these variables, were external variables based on macroeconomic variables in addition to internal variables. In the light of the above, the present article reviews and empirically investigates some of the most important macroeconomic variables that were previously used in a variety of stock return forecasting models. The results of the paper show that macroeconomic variables effective on the stock market (stock return or market index) are suitable for modeling to predict stock returns. In the stock market of our country, the results of the impact of these variables on stock returns have been similar in some respects and contradictory in other respects, and the reasons can be attributed to the type of forecasting models, the time period of the research and different economic structure of the country.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Accounting and Social Interests
Volume 10, Issue 2 - Serial Number 37
September 2020
Pages 113-131

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History

  • Receive Date: 18 May 2019
  • Revise Date: 09 October 2019
  • Accept Date: 11 September 2019

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