توسعه مدل‌های پیش‌بینی اقلام تعهدی بر اساس ویژگی‌های جریان‌های نقدی

افتخاری‌فر, سیاوش; عظیمی یانچشمه, مجید; فرهادی, مریم; صادقی, محسن

doi:10.22051/jaasci.2024.44616.1793

توسعه مدل‌های پیش‌بینی اقلام تعهدی بر اساس ویژگی‌های جریان‌های نقدی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ گروه حسابداری، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران.

² گروه حسابداری، واحد مبارکه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

10.22051/jaasci.2024.44616.1793

چکیده

هدف: هدف بنیادین این پژوهش کاربست ویژگی‌های جریان‌های نقدی یعنی زمان‌بندی و تطابق در مدل‌های مهم برآورد اقلام تعهدی به‌منظور بهبود کیفیت و توان توضیح‌دهندگی این مدل‌ها است.
روش: جامعه آماری پژوهش دربرگیرنده شرکت‌های بهابازار اوراق بهادار تهران است که نمونه‌ای به تعداد ۱۶۷ شرکت در بازه زمانی ۱۳۹۰ تا ۱۳۹۹ به شیوه حذفی سامان‌مند از آن گزینش شده است. آزمون فرضیه‌های پژوهش با شیوه وایازش خطی چندمتغیره و آزمون‌های تی - استیودنت و وونگ (1989) با نرم‌افزار آماری استاتا (نسخه 18) بررسی می‌شوند.
یافته‌ها: دستاوردهای این پژوهش نشان می‌دهند کاربست جریان‌های نقدی و ویژگی‌های آنها در مدل‌ها باعث می‌شود پسماند مدل‌ها مفهومی اقتصادی بگیرد که با مفهوم صرفاً اقتصادسنجی ناهمسان است و توان توضیح‌دهندگی مدل‌ها نسبت به مدل‌های استاندارد به‌صورت معناداری افزایش و بهبود پیدا کند.
نتیجه ‎گیری: تغییر جریان‌های نقدی، همبستگی سریالی در تغییر جریان‌های نقدی و طول چرخه عملیاتی در مدل‌های تعهدی، قدرت توضیحی آنها را بهبود می‌بخشد. کاربست این مدل‌ها به کشف مدیریت سود و استخراج اقلام تعهدی با کیفیت بالا یاری می‌رساند. مدل جتر و شیواکومار تعدیل شده بیشترین توان توضیحی به صورت معنادار را در میان مدل‌های مورد بررسی را دارد.
دانش‌افزایی: چارچوب نظری برای درک رابطه بین اقلام تعهدی و ویژگی‌های جریان نقدی ارائه می‌کند و رابطه بین اقلام تعهدی و ویژگی‌های جریان نقدی را آزمایش می‌کند. گنجاندن این متغیرها در مدل های تعهدی به تشخیص مدیریت سود در شرکت ها کمک می کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

حسابداری مالی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of accruals predicting models based on cash flow Properties

نویسندگان [English]

Siavash Eftekharifar ¹
Majid Azimi Yancheshmeh ²
Maryam Farhadi ¹
Mohsen Sadeghi ¹

¹ Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.

² Department of Accounting, Mobarakeh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Purpose: The fundamental aim of this research is to apply the cash flows and characteristics of cash flows, namely “timing”, and “matching”, in important models for predicting accruals to improve the quality and explanatory power of these models.
Method: The research data consists of a sample of 167 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange for a period of 10 years and the hypotheses are tested using multiple linear regression and t-tests, Vuong test (1989) with the statistical software Stata (version 18).
Results: The explanatory power of the models significantly increases and improves compared to standard models. Thirdly, the modified models result in the emergence of discretionary accruals items with greater reliability. Lastly, the adjusted jeter and shivakumar model, incorporating cash flows and their characteristics, exhibits the highest explanatory power among the examined models.
Contribution: The article provides a theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between accruals and cash-flow properties and empirically tests the relationship between accruals and cash-flow properties. Incorporating these variables in accrual models improves aids detection of earnings management in firms.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Accruals
cash-flow changes
Timing
Matching

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